June 2016 Pension Finance Update

July 01, 2016

Financial markets have been roiled in the past week by Brexit, adding to pain pension sponsors had already been suffering this year. Both model pension plans we track1 suffered setbacks in June – Plan A lost 4% last month, while Plan B was off 2%. Through the first half of 2016, Plan A is now down 10% and Plan B is down 5%:

Assets

Stocks were mostly down in June: the S&P 500 was flat, but NASDAQ lost more than 2%, the small-cap Russell 2000 was down 1%, and the overseas EAFE index fell more than 4%. For the year, the S&P 500 remains up more than 3% and the Russell 2000 is ahead 1%, but the NASDAQ is down more than 3% and the EAFE index has lost 4%.

A diversified stock portfolio lost 1% during June and is now up less than 1% for the first half of 2016.

Falling interest rates, compounded by Brexit, pushed bonds to their best month of the year in June, generating returns of 2%-4% on the month, with long duration bonds and Treasuries doing best. For the year, bonds are now up 6%-9%, with longer duration bonds and corporates enjoying the best results.

Overall, our traditional 60/40 portfolio was flat during June and finished the first half of 2016 up 2%-3%, while the conservative 20/80 portfolio added 1%-2% last month and has earned 6%-7% so far during 2016.

Liabilities

Pension liabilities (for funding, accounting, and de-risking purposes) are now driven by market interest rates. The graph on the left compares Treasury STRIPs yields at December 31, 2015 and June 30, 2016, and also shows the movement in rates last month. The graph on the right shows our estimate of movements in effective GAAP discount rates for pension obligations of various duration during 2016:

Treasury yields fell 0.3% during June and are down more than 0.70% this year. Meanwhile, corporate bond yields fell 0.25% last month and are now down almost 0.70% in 2016.

The move pushed pension liabilities up 4% last month; liabilities are now 12%-16% higher than at the end of 2015, with long duration plans seeing the biggest increases.

Summary

2016 has been a painful year for pension sponsors so far – assets are up a bit, but liabilities have seen double-digit increases, as long-term interest rates reach all-time low levels, in part due to the recent Brexit.

The graphs below show the movement of assets and liabilities for our two model plans this year:

Looking Ahead

The Obama Administration and Congressional leaders passed a budget last fall that includes a third round of pension funding relief since 2012. The upshot is that pension funding requirements over the next several years will not be appreciably affected by current low interest rates (unless these rates persist). Required contributions for the next few years will be lower and more stable than under prior law.

Discount rates fell a full quarter point last month. We expect most pension sponsors will use effective discount rates in the 3.3%-3.9% range to measure pension liabilities right now. These rates are as low as we’ve ever seen.

The table below summarizes rates that plan sponsors are required to use for IRS funding purposes for 2016, along with estimates for 2017. Pre-relief, both 24-month averages and December ‘spot’ rates, which are still required for some calculations, such as PBGC premiums, are also included.

October Three Consulting, LLC is a full service actuarial, consulting and technology firm that is a leading force behind the reemergence of defined benefit plans across the country. A primary focus of the consultants at October Three is the design and administration of comprehensive retirement benefits to employees that minimize the financial risks and volatility concerns employers face.

Through effective plan design strategies October Three believes successful financial outcomes are achievable for employers and employees alike. A critical element of those strategies is the ReDB® plan design. The ReDefined Benefit Plan® represents an entirely new, design-based approach to retirement and to the management of both the employer’s and the employee’s financial risk, focusing on maximizing financial efficiency and employee value.

For more information:

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1 Plan A is a traditional plan (duration 12 at 5.5%) with a 60/40 asset allocation, while Plan B is a cash balance plan (duration 9 at 5.5%) with a 20/80 allocation with a greater emphasis on corporate and long-duration bonds. For both plans, we assume the plan is 100% funded at the beginning of the year and ignore benefit accruals, contributions, and benefit payments in order to isolate the financial performance of plan assets versus liabilities.

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